p(doom)  ·  the database, the index, the coin

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p(doom) / probability of AI catastrophe

Every public p(doom), in the speakers’ own words. A weekly index of the odds. And $PDOOM, a memecoin that hedges the dread.

Find someone’s p(doom) ↓How the coin works →

what’s your p(doom)?

Find a p(doom)

Anyone who has said a number,
in their own words.

Or browse everyone A–Z · the full database

The p(doom) index

One number,
updated weekly.

Half the people, three-tenths the expert surveys, one-fifth the market. Every input is a row in the database. Method and history in the JSON.

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Last week—
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Peoplemedian of each person's latest estimate · — people
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Expertsmedian of expert surveys, latest per series
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MarketManifold, "AI wipes out humanity before 2100"
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Index = 0.5 × people + 0.3 × experts + 0.2 × market. Bands: calm under 5, uneasy to 15, nervous to 30, alarmed to 60, doomed above. Polls and models are tracked but not counted. History: pdoomcoin.lol/data/index.json

The p(doom) board

What the people building it
say the odds are.

Public estimates, quoted as given, highest to lowest. One row is a live prediction market. One row is you.

Roman YampolskiyAI safety researcher, University of Louisville · AI catastrophe / extinction · Mar 12, 2024 · source
99.999999%
David KruegerProfessor, Mila · AI catastrophe / extinction · Sep 10, 2026 · source
>50%
Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic · things go really, really badly · Sep 17, 2025 · source
25%
Elon MuskxAI, Tesla, SpaceX · AI catastrophe / extinction · Mar 1, 2025 · source
20%
Geoffrey HintonNobel laureate; University of Toronto · AI tries to take over from us · Oct 14, 2026 · source
10–20%
Evan HubingerAlignment science lead, Anthropic · AI kills all humans · within the next decade · Sep 9, 2026 · source
>10%
Yann LeCunChief AI scientist, Meta; Turing Award · existential risk from AI · Apr 13, 2026 · source
≈0%
Jensen HuangCEO, Nvidia · AI ending the world by 2030 · 2030 · Sep 20, 2026 · source
0%
The marketManifold, “Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100” · live
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The hedgersWeekly poll on @Pdoomcoinsol
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Youwhat’s your p(doom)?
?

Estimates are the speakers’ own words at the time given and are not updated on their behalf. Polymarket lists no extinction market; Manifold does. This is the short list, straight from the database. Everyone A–Z · the full database

$PDOOM

Nervous about AI.
Long the infrastructure.

A Solana memecoin about AI risk. Trading fees fund a 3× long on Venice’s VVV, the private AI that works in every p(doom) scenario. Profits come home and burn supply. Every burn, take-profit and strategy change is public.

You don’t have to believe in doom to hedge it.

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